The US Benefits Most From a Stalemate In Ukraine (Not a Victory)

Keep an eye on how the US approaches any future peace talks with this fact in mind

Photo by Levi Meir Clancy on Unsplash

Recently, there has been a lot of talk about victory in Ukraine. Military planners at NATO see a path forward in which Ukraine defeats Russia in the ongoing military conflict that has been simmering since 2014. The news has elated the public who has been vocally rooting for Ukraine since the war entered this widescale phase earlier this year. While victory still feels like a lofty goal it is the outcome that many people are hoping for. However, a victory for Ukraine is not the most advantageous outcome for the United States.

How can that be? Isn’t Russia losing the best outcome for NATO and the United States?

As callous as it sounds, a victory for Ukraine would be the second-worst outcome to a swift Russian victory. The most optimal outcome for the United States is a long and grinding stalemate in eastern Ukraine that pins down Russia in an endless war.

Since a stalemate is the best outcome look for the United States to take a hardline in any upcoming peace negotiations. The US and NATO are going to claim that Ukraine should cede no territory to Russia and that they should fight until the battle is won. Any ceasefire is going to be laced with language about absolute victory and not giving an inch to the evil Russians.

Stalemate > Victory

A stalemate in the Ukraine benefits the United States and NATO in various ways. First, a stalemate will pin down the Russian military and prevent it from regrouping or retargeting. As long as fighting is going on in Ukraine Russia’s ability to pivot, save face or rebuild is going to be severely hampered.

Second, it gives US arms manufacturers a new battleground to pour their weapons into. Since the United States pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan there was a sharp decrease in regions where multi-billion dollar corporations could peddle their wares. The war in Ukraine offers the best market for arms dealers in decades. This is a large-scale conflict that is going to make a small number of people very rich.