No, 2024 Was Not Earth’s Hottest Year (Not Even Close)

Misleading and hyperbolic headlines meet the dinosaurs

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Following the conclusion of 2024, newsfeeds around the world were bombarded with misleading headlines screaming that 2024 was the warmest year on record. You likely saw many of these headlines that look something like this.

• WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record
• Temperatures Rising: NASA Confirms 2024 Warmest Year on Record
• 2024 was the world’s warmest year on record

At first glance, these headlines look concerning. They are enough to bring a stab of existential dread or a wave of fear. What is going to happen to us? Is the planet burning up? These were common questions and sentiments online after this news dropped. The problem is that they are heavily misleading.

Note that every one of these official headlines makes sure to include the words “on record.” Those two little words are key to understanding this data. Weather and climate data only goes back to 1850 at the earliest. Reliable weather and climate data really only go back to 1900. That means that every year prior to 1900 is a bit of a guess or a black box when it comes to data. We don’t know how hot or cold it was in the 18th century. Scientists can infer things about times like the Little Ice Age, which gripped Europe in the 16th and 17th centuries, but they don’t have real numbers or hard data.

The time period in which scientists have official records of climate data is roughly 125 years. That accounts for just 2.5% of the time human civilization has been around (~5000 years). That means that for 97.5% of humanity’s existence, we don’t really know how hot or cold it was. (Not to mention the entire lifespan of our planet which allegedly stretches back billions of years.)

So 2024 was the warmest year since 1900. That is not as catchy nor as concerning as the warmest year on record. In fact, we know that there were warmer years than 2024 — much warmer years.

During the Cretaceous Period, roughly 100 million years ago, the planet was considerably warmer. The atmosphere naturally contained more CO2 than it does now. There were no ice sheets at the poles, and glaciers were extinct…