Global Population Is Projected To Shrink For The First Time Since The Black Death

What is causing our population slow down?

Grant Piper
5 min readApr 19, 2024
(Public domain)

The world’s population sits at roughly 8 billion people. This is the result of a continuous population increase that has been going on since the bubonic plague swept across the Earth. The end of the Medieval Period saw a notable population crunch. Between the devastating effects of the Black Death and the Mongol conquests, many more people were dying than were surviving until adulthood. Once the Mongol conquests ceased and the plague faded away, the human population climbed steadily. But according to new data, that trend is likely going to slow down and even reverse in the coming decades.

The birth rate required to maintain a steady population is 2.1. The world’s current birth rate sits at 2.3, which is the lowest it has been in centuries. People are having fewer and fewer kids, and the age at which people are having kids is climbing. This is a trend that is being seen all over the world. Increases in the standard of living, education, and access to birth control have caused birth rates to plummet. If the birth rate dips below 2.1, the world’s population will shrink rather than grow for the first time in centuries. Humanity might cross that threshold sooner rather than later.

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Grant Piper

Professional writer. Amateur historian. Husband, father, Christian.