Member-only story
Four Reasons Why The US Loses In A War With China
A nightmare situation for the United States
Military planners, politicians, and armchair generals are all focused on a potential war between China and the United States. Geopolitics demands that a challenger arise and press the United States for a position on the top of the global mountaintop. Right now, it looks like that challenger will be China. China has a long list of grievances against the United States, including an oppressive containment policy that sees China completely ringed by US allies. China also has its eyes on the breakaway province of Taiwan, which the US is committed to defending. This has set off a large number of reports, hand wringing and theorizing about such a conflict. Would the United States win?
If a war broke out tomorrow between China and the United States, the US would be in a precarious position. The advantages they used to have on the global stage are no longer as pronounced as they once were and there is a good chance the US would lose to China in a war in the South China Sea. Here are four reasons why the US could lose the next war to China if things do not change.
1) Ship Building Capacity
China’s ship building capacity far outstrips that of the United States. In a recent report, it was found that China has the capacity to build over 23 million tons of shipping per year. The United States, by comparison, can only build 100,000 tons of shipping per year. That gives China a 232x advantage when it comes to producing shipping. A hypothetical war between the US and China would consist of a large maritime component, and this kind of production capacity gives China a massive advantage, especially in a prolonged conflict.
The US Navy estimated that China could replace losses of naval vessels 200 times faster than the United States. That would make losses to the United States Navy much more costly than losses to the Chinese Navy during the same period. If China can sink any number of American ships, it will be in their favor. Even if the US sinks Chinese ships at a rate of 2:1, China can replace them far faster allowing them to stay in the fight and continue to wear down American military capacity.
