Could The War In Ukraine End Like The Korean War?
Almost a year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there does not seem to be an end in sight. The Ukrainians claim that they will not settle for anything less than every inch of territory captured by the Russians, including the Crimean Peninsula, that was lost in 2014. That seems like an ambitious goal that could hold up any true peace talks.
On the other side, Russia has lost far more men and equipment than they anticipated, and their goals remain elusive. If they want to capture the entirety of Ukraine, they are nowhere close to being able to achieve that goal. The official line from the Kremlin is that Russia is trying to “de-Nazify” the country. Has Ukraine been sufficiently deprived of Nazis? Hard to say.
As the war drags on, the chances of the conflict devolving into an awful stalemate grow. Already, offensives and counteroffensive have stalled, and both sides are settling in for a long cold winter. The projected winter stalemate condenses into an unbreakable slog come spring, there is a chance that the war could end as the Korean War ended.
A Hostile Border
The 2014 war between Russian separatists and Ukraine ended in a stalemate that created a contentious border. There were skirmishes all along the line, including outbreaks of artillery shelling. There is a chance that the current conflict ends in the same way—a new militarized border between Russia and Ukraine.
The Korean Peninsula was and still is a pawn for global powers. South Korea is a staging base for American and NATO forces in the region. North Korea is a puppet of Communist China. North Korea serves as a buffer between the West and China which is why the nation is likely going to continue to exist.
A similar situation could easily develop in Ukraine. Russia could maintain that the separatist nations in Ukraine’s east, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, are independent nations similar to North Korea. These countries would…